01
The budget nearly quadrupled
Voters approved $33B in 2008. The latest estimate: $128B. That's $3,200 per Californian—for a train that doesn't exist yet.
Phase 1 cost estimates, by business plan year
Cost per mile (current estimate)
$257M/mi
vs. $25M/mi for Japan's Shinkansen extensions
Cost per mile actually built
$197M/mi
$13.8B spent ÷ 70 miles of guideway
What $128 billion buys
18×
Golden Gate Bridges
5×
Entire LA Metro systems
256K
Affordable housing units
25
Nuclear reactors
4×
Panama Canals
2×
International Space Stations
02
The world builds trains for a fraction of the cost
California's cost per mile dwarfs every comparable project on Earth.
Cost per mile: global high-speed rail comparison
03
The deadline slipped 13+ years
Promised by 2020. Now targeting 2033—for just Merced to Bakersfield. Full SF-to-LA has no date.
Projected completion date, by plan year
2008
Prop 1A passes. $9.95B bonds. SF–LA by 2020.
2015
Ground broken in Fresno. 7 years of planning.
2019
Newsom scales back. Central Valley only. Full line shelved.
2025
First track laid. 10 years after groundbreaking.
2033?
Maybe opens: Merced–Bakersfield, 171 mi.
TBD
SF–LA complete. "As funding becomes available."
04
70 miles built. 430 to go.
A decade of construction produced track in the Central Valley—nowhere near SF or LA. No trains run on it.
0 mi
171 mi (funded)
500 mi (full route)
Route status: San Francisco to Los Angeles
05
Where $13.8 billion went
One contractor bid $985M. They've billed $3.55B—a 260% overrun.
Contract values: original bid vs. current
Spending breakdown
Category
Amount
Note
CP 1: Madera–Fresno (32 mi)
$3.55B
+260% from $985M bid
CP 2-3: Fresno–Kern (65 mi)
$1.80B
Bid $500M under competitors
CP 4: Kern–Poplar (22 mi)
$500M
Completed Jan 2025
Program management (Parsons)
$700M
Through 2022
Bookend investments
~$2B
Caltrain electrification, LA rail
Environmental & design
~$86M
Merced–Madera, Shafter–Bakersfield
06
Federal money: given, taken, given, taken
Washington has swung wildly on HSR funding. The latest: Trump pulled $4B in unspent grants.
Federal funding flow
Promised in 2008
SF–LA in 2h 40min
$33 billion total
Complete by 2020
No operating subsidies
Reality in 2026
0 passengers carried
$128B projected cost
2033 maybe Merced–Bakersfield
TBD SF–LA completion